Weekly
Macro Reports
Weekly sourced analysis on central banks, G10 currencies, sovereign rates, and commodities. Weekly analysis on G10 currencies, rates, and commodities.
Macro within everyone’s reach
Every week, a report on central banks, currencies and commodities, backed by statistical models tested walk-forward. Weekly analysis and quantitative models to frame your macro allocations.
Our publications are research, not investment advice. Independent research and quantitative modeling.
Platform
Horacle Hub
Turnkey quantitative terminal: Edge Finder, volatility regimes, and FX fair value models. Turnkey quant terminal: Edge Finder and volatility regimes.
Signal feed
Horacle Signals
Directional scores and biases from M1/M3 and Fair Value models, emailed every Sunday. Directional scores and biases from M1, M3, and Fair Value models.
To every user,
its macro solution
Every solution built by Horacle Capital relies on the same methodological rigor: statistical models tested walk-forward, regime detection, and strict out-of-sample validation. Statistical models tested walk-forward, regime detection, and strict out-of-sample validation.
From weekly research reports to frame your allocations to our real-time quantitative terminal or algorithmic signal feeds, choose the format suited to your decision process.
Independent macroeconomic and quantitative research. Our publications and models constitute decision-support tools.
A turnkey platform
Horacle Hub brings our models, the Edge Finder and market regimes together in one interface. Nothing to install, nothing to code: open it, read it, decide.
- Ready to use. Browser access, activated after a call with the desk.
- Updated every day. Scores, regimes and positioning recomputed before the open.
- Readable without being an expert. Every verdict breaks down factor by factor.
- A desk by your side. Questions on a signal or a method: we answer.
Latest publications
All reports
New Dollar at the Peak, Sovereign Debt Under Pressure
Macroeconomic Analysis and Quantitative Finance: DXY above 102, U.S. yields at 5.30%, ACM term premium modeling and French fiscal risk impact on the euro. CPI and Retail Sales outlook.
Read the report New CAC 40 Slump, Wall Street Records and Oil Strains
Weekly Equities & Commodities Review: CAC 40 under French OAT-Bund spread pressure, historic Wall Street records, Brent crude above $100 and gold surge.
Read the report
Why Are Long-Term Yields Going Haywire?
Technical and fundamental analysis of the strain on bond yields and its impact on multi-asset portfolios.
Read the report
Disappointing NFP, Rate Hike Not Yet Locked In?
Weekly macroeconomic review: sharp U.S. payroll deceleration to 29,000, euro area inflation resurgence to 3.8%, French 10Y OAT at 4.859% and USD/JPY 160 defense.
Read the reportTry the Edge Finder
Sixteen statistical components per currency pair. A verdict only when factors agree.
Edge Finder: G10 Forex Multi-Factor Scoring
- GBPCHF STRONG BULLScore +8Δ 1S +7 Bullish Accel
- USDCHF BULLISHScore +5Δ 1S +3 Bullish Accel
- EURGBP BEARISHScore -4Δ 1S -3 Bearish Accel
- GBPJPY BULLISHScore +4Δ 1S +3 Bullish Accel
- AUDCAD BEARISHScore -4Δ 1S -4 Bearish Accel
- NZDCHF BULLISHScore +4Δ 1S +3 Bullish Accel
- CADJPY BULLISHScore +4Δ 1S +3 Bullish Accel
- CADCHF BULLISHScore +4Δ 1S +4 Bullish Accel
- EURUSD BEARISHScore -3Δ 1S -2 Bearish Accel
- EURCHF BULLISHScore +3Δ 1S +5 Short Covering
| ASSET | OVERALL | Δ 1S | VERDICT | 30D | MOMENTUM | MACRO | POS | RISK | FLOW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FX 🇬🇧 🇨🇭 GBPCHF | +8 | +7 Bullish Accel | STRONG BULL | | ▲ +1.8 P94 | +4.52 | -0.50 | LOW RISK | -0.44 |
| FX 🇺🇸 🇨🇭 USDCHF | +5 | +3 Bullish Accel | BULLISH | | ▲ +2.3 P93 | +2.80 | -0.50 | MEDIUM RISK | -0.74 |
| FX 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 EURGBP | -4 | -3 Bearish Accel | BEARISH | | -0.1 P54 | -1.00 | +0.50 | LOW RISK | -0.18 |
| FX 🇬🇧 🇯🇵 GBPJPY | +4 | +3 Bullish Accel | BULLISH | | ▲ +1.5 P80 | +3.20 | -0.40 | MEDIUM RISK | +0.30 |
| FX 🇦🇺 🇨🇦 AUDCAD | -4 | -4 Bearish Accel | BEARISH | | ▲ +1.1 P69 | -8.29 | +0.48 | LOW RISK | -0.52 |
| FX 🇳🇿 🇨🇭 NZDCHF | +4 | +3 Bullish Accel | BULLISH | | ▲ +0.9 P75 | +2.10 | -0.20 | LOW RISK | -0.15 |
| FX 🇨🇦 🇯🇵 CADJPY | +4 | +3 Bullish Accel | BULLISH | | ▼ -3.4 P0 | +5.23 | -0.36 | MEDIUM RISK | +0.04 |
| FX 🇨🇦 🇨🇭 CADCHF | +4 | +4 Bullish Accel | BULLISH | | ▲ +1.9 P94 | +7.10 | -2 | LOW RISK | -0.25 |
| FX 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 EURUSD | -3 | -2 Bearish Accel | BEARISH | | ▼ -0.6 P32 | +0.78 | +2 | LOW RISK | -0.49 |
| FX 🇪🇺 🇨🇭 EURCHF | +3 | +5 Short Covering | BULLISH | | ▲ +1.7 P96 | +3.51 | -0.37 | LOW RISK | -0.62 |
HORACLE EDGE v4.2
Preview on sample data, not updated.
What you get out of it
Three situations where our research changes an actual decision.
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Before an ECB meeting
Know where the risk sits
You see which currencies are most exposed to a surprise and how the market is already positioned.
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After an inflation print
Judge whether the move is done
The surprise model places the release against consensus and shows whether the currency still has room to run.
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When rebalancing
Rank the G7 economies
Macro scoring ranks the G7 currencies and helps you decide where to add or trim exposure.
Frequently asked questions
What is Horacle Capital?
Horacle Capital is an independent research cell specialised in macroeconomic analysis and quantitative modelling of financial markets. We publish a macro report every week and build statistical models (macro surprises, currency scoring, fair value) tested out of sample.
Who are your reports for?
Self-directed investors, traders, private wealth managers, family offices and corporate treasuries who want an independent reading of central banks, G10 currencies, rates and commodities, with no brokerage conflict of interest.
Where should I start?
Sign up for the Monday note: every week you get the macro report and the main biases of our models. To go further, Horacle Signals and Horacle Hub give access to the detail.
What is the difference between Horacle Hub and Horacle Signals?
Horacle Hub is the full platform: Edge Finder, market regimes, COT positioning, FX fair value and risk tools. Horacle Signals is a lighter feed: the scores and directional biases of our models, sent every Sunday by email.
Is your research investment advice?
No. Horacle Capital publishes research for informational and educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Each investor remains responsible for their decisions and may consult a licensed adviser.