Today’s Calendar:
| Date | Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jun 29 | 1:30am | AUD | RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks | - | - | - |
| Mon Jun 29 | 1:50am | JPY | Retail Sales y/y | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| Mon Jun 29 | 7:00am | GBP | MPC Member Pill Speaks | - | - | - |
| Mon Jun 29 | 9:00am | EUR | Spanish Flash CPI y/y | - | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Mon Jun 29 | 10:00am | EUR | M3 Money Supply y/y | - | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Mon Jun 29 | 10:00am | EUR | Private Loans y/y | - | 2.9% | 3.0% |
| Mon Jun 29 | 10:30am | GBP | M4 Money Supply m/m | - | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Mon Jun 29 | 10:30am | GBP | Mortgage Approvals | - | 63K | 66K |
| Mon Jun 29 | 10:30am | GBP | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | - | 6.0B | 6.2B |
| Mon Jun 29 | 7:30pm | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | - | - | - |
Asian Session Variations:
| Symbol | Last | Chg | Chg% |
|---|---|---|---|
| AU10Y | 4.748 | -0.010 | -0.21% |
| CA10Y | 3.386 | 0.004 | 0.12% |
| DE10Y | 2.854 | -0.002 | -0.07% |
| EU10Y | 2.854 | -0.002 | -0.07% |
| FR10Y | 3.637 | -0.004 | -0.12% |
| GB10Y | 4.740 | 0.000 | 0.01% |
| JP10Y | 2.636 | 0.023 | 0.88% |
| NZ10Y | 4.403 | 0.018 | 0.41% |
| SM10Y | 1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| US10Y | 4.378 | 0.002 | 0.05% |
Key Highlights:
The agreement between the United States and the Middle East remains fragile once again, with new Iranian attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. At the Asian open, oil appreciated, but quickly retraced before the UK and European opens.
Given its safe-haven status, and the altercations in the Strait of Hormuz, we could see a short-term bullish momentum on gold this week, which would resume its role as a safe haven, lost in recent weeks given the relative strength of the dollar.
Turbulence in the stock market could still be the order of the day this week, if the FED’s hawkish tone is still predominant. The macro data in the middle and end of the week will be decisive for the continuation of the momentum in equities.
To Watch:
- Oil, if the conflict in the Middle East does not calm down.
- Safe havens: JPY, USD, CHF, GOLD.
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Léo Lombardini
Trader, Economics & Quant
Passionate about market analysis and statistical modeling, Léo oversees the strategic allocation of the model portfolio and the development of Horacle Capital's quantitative frameworks, as well as writing weekly articles.
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