Calendar
| Date | Time | Currency | Impact | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Tuesday June 30* | 01:01 | GBP | Low | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 01:30 | JPY | Low | Unemployment Rate | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| 01:50 | JPY | Low | Prelim Industrial Production m/m | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | |
| 03:00 | NZD | Low | ANZ Business Confidence | 36.6 | 10.0 | ||
| 03:30 | AUD | Low | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | ||||
| 03:30 | AUD | Low | Private Sector Credit m/m | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 07:00 | JPY | Low | Housing Starts y/y | 33.9% | 31.8% | 11.4% | |
| 08:00 | EUR | Low | German Import Prices m/m | 0.4% | 1.2% | ||
| 08:00 | EUR | Low | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.0% | -0.3% | ||
| 08:00 | GBP | Low | Current Account | -22.2B | -18.4B | ||
| 08:00 | GBP | Low | Final GDP q/q | 0.6% | 0.6% | ||
| 08:00 | GBP | Low | Revised Business Investment q/q | 0.7% | 0.7% | ||
| All Day | EUR | Medium | German Prelim CPI m/m | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||
| 08:45 | EUR | Low | French Consumer Spending m/m | 0.2% | -0.5% | ||
| 08:45 | EUR | Low | French Prelim CPI m/m | 0.0% | 0.1% | ||
| 09:00 | CHF | Low | KOF Economic Barometer | 99.0 | 98.0 | ||
| 09:55 | EUR | Low | German Unemployment Change | 7K | -12K | ||
| 11:00 | EUR | Low | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||
| 12:40 | GBP | Low | MPC Member Breeden Speaks | ||||
| 14:30 | CAD | **High** | GDP m/m | 0.4% | -0.1% | ||
| 15:00 | USD | Low | HPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||
| 15:00 | USD | Low | S\&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 0.9% | 0.8% | ||
| 15:45 | USD | Low | Chicago PMI | 55.7 | 62.7 | ||
| 16:00 | USD | Medium | CB Consumer Confidence | 94.4 | 93.1 | ||
| 16:00 | USD | Medium | JOLTS Job Openings | 7.28M | 7.62M | ||
| 22:30 | USD | Low | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin |
Asian Open:
Key Information:
This Tuesday the 30th, we start the day with some macro data for the Eurozone and the UK. First, we have trade data for Germany with key retail sales and import prices. THE most important today for the Eurozone will be the inflation in Germany expected during the day.
The UK, still in turmoil with the departure of its prime minister, will publish its GDP (q/q) at 8am.
The most important data remain the US JOLTS and the CB Consumer Index. Regarding the JOLTS report, it is a statistic measuring labor demand and staff turnover across the Atlantic. By its full name Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, this indicator allows a finer understanding of tensions or the slowdown in employment in the United States.
Furthermore, from a geopolitical point of view, according to Bloomberg, Iran will control the strait with or without Oman. A meeting between the US and Iran is scheduled today, and the outcome could be less accommodating than the last meeting. Oil could once again break through to two-week highs, and the dollar could continue its bullish momentum, which seemed to have weakened in recent days according to ING bank analysts.
Hawkish data would be the only factors exogenous to the conflict that could support the dollar this week.
Assets to Watch:
| SYMBOL | BIAS | SCORE | RISK | CONV. | TREND | SEAS. | CARRY% | SENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDCHF | BULLISH | +4 | SAFE | \[2/6\] | 0 | -1 | +3.72% | 0.000 |
| GBPCHF | BULLISH | +4 | SAFE | \[3/6\] | 0 | 0 | +4.37% | 0.000 |
| USDJPY | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | \[4/6\] | 1 | 0 | +1.66% | -1.467 |
| EURCAD | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | \[2/6\] | 0 | 0 | -0.31% | 0.944 |
| EURCHF | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | \[1/6\] | 0 | 0 | +2.77% | 0.570 |
| GBPJPY | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | \[3/6\] | 1 | 1 | +2.31% | -1.467 |
| AUDJPY | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | \[2/6\] | 2 | 1 | +2.44% | -3.073 |
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Léo Lombardini
Trader, Economics & Quant
Passionate about market analysis and statistical modeling, Léo oversees the strategic allocation of the model portfolio and the development of Horacle Capital's quantitative frameworks, as well as writing weekly articles.
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