Daily Report Horacle - July 1st, 2026

Calendar

Macro Model Sentiment

Key Information:

Initially, the data expected in the US zone yesterday was nuanced. First, the JOLTS data was slightly above expectations with a forecast of 7.28M and actual data of 7.59M. This good news in itself pushed the USD JPY cross to break 45-year old highs (1980). And then, the consumer confidence index fell below expectations with actual data of 91.2 and forecasts around 94.4. This is not dramatic data in itself.

This day promises to be very important for the dollar, given the expected speech from the FED chairman, as well as the PMI data. Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tone will play a major role as to whether or not the dollar’s bullish momentum slows down. According to the Financial Times, even though the labor market data seems promising over the past few publications, average wage growth is not there, and this even if the price of oil and other commodities were to drop sharply according to analysts. Therefore, the FED’s rate hiking cycle could be challenged by the real growth of the economy, and not entirely influenced by the acceleration of the labor market, which itself seems cyclical and temporary.

As a result, the greenback saw strong appreciation yesterday, even if the majority of pairs have already retraced at least half of the move, the dollar remains relatively powerful, with news quite supportive for the latter.

Be careful however on the USD JPY pair, since the 162 levels are becoming supports, Japanese interventions could become more frequent, even if none for the moment has had the desired effect.

As for the Eurozone, inflation data (estimate) is expected today with a speech by the ECB president. The market no longer prices a rate hike for the summer as much, but the tone of the speech and the macro data this week could nevertheless reshuffle the deck.

Assets to Watch:

The outcome of the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran will likely have an importance on the direction of oil, the dollar and related commodities. Aussie and Kiwi pairs are heavily impacted by fluctuations in black gold, which is why AUD/JPY, AUDUSD etc. crosses are assets to watch in these times of uncertainty.