Calendar
| Time | Currency | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30am | NZD | BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index | 59.7 | - | 51.3 |
| 1:01am | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | -33% | -31% | -34% |
| 1:50am | JPY | M2 Money Stock y/y | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 8:00am | EUR | German Trade Balance | 19.1B | 14.9B | 14.5B |
| 8:00am | JPY | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | 52.8% | - | 37.5% |
| All Day | EUR | Eurogroup Meetings | - | - | - |
| 1:30pm | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | - | - | - |
| 2:30pm | USD | Unemployment Claims | - | 218K | 215K |
| 3:00pm | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | - | - | - |
| 4:00pm | USD | Existing Home Sales | - | 4.19M | 4.17M |
| 4:30pm | USD | Natural Gas Storage | - | 60B | 87B |
| 6:00pm | CHF | Gov Board Member Martin Speaks | - | - | - |
| 7:01pm | USD | 30-y Bond Auction | - | - | 5.02 / 2.3 |
Macro Sentiment
| SYMBOL | BIAS | SCORE | RISK | CONV. | M1 SURP | M3 MACRO | M5 SENT | CB DIFF | CARRY% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPCHF | BULLISH | +4 | SAFE | [3/6] | 2.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.300 | +4.5% |
| USDCHF | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | [1/6] | 2.290 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.148 | +3.73% |
| EURCHF | BULLISH | +3 | SAFE | [1/6] | -0.250 | 0.000 | 0.744 | -0.192 | +2.78% |
| GBPCAD | BULLISH | +3 | CAUTION | [3/6] | -1.310 | 0.000 | 0.476 | 0.576 | +1.4% |
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Important Information:
Yesterday, President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire between Iran and the United States was no longer valid, given the Iranian drone attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical news reshuffles the deck, even though expectations for peace were not at their peak.
Following yesterday’s announcement, oil rose by 5% and the dollar also surged sharply, seeking out the week’s highs on USD/JPY. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes shed a little more light on the intentions of the new Fed chairman. The hawkish tone seems to be assumed, with inflation revisions clearly biased upward, largely due to the rise in oil prices since January. Growth and the labor market, meanwhile, have not been modified, and the convictions of board members do not seem to evaporate in the face of growing inflation.
The market is therefore beginning to price in a rate hike later in 2026 in order to regulate inflation that is gaining ground in the majority of currency zones.
The Bank of New Zealand also adopted a hawkish tone, with a 25 basis point rate hike and an ex-post conference more hawkish (restrictive) than expected by consensus.
In the eurozone, the political climate remains somewhat convoluted, with the presentation of Marine Le Pen as a candidate for the 2027 presidential election, a variable that had been erased following her conviction. Fiscal and political risks in this scenario remain significant for France, the second most important country for the eurozone. French bonds could be affected, which warrants monitoring.
The publications expected today are not the most important of recent weeks, with only jobless claims in the United States.
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Léo Lombardini
Trader, Economics & Quant
Passionate about market analysis and statistical modeling, Léo oversees the strategic allocation of the model portfolio and the development of Horacle Capital's quantitative frameworks, as well as writing weekly articles.
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