The Historic Agreement and the Renewal of Markets

Equity (Stocks)

The long-awaited peace agreement

On June 14, the United States and Iran announced an agreement. The Strait of Hormuz is to reopen. This is the news the markets had been waiting for for months.

Indices immediately welcomed the news. On Monday, June 15, the Nasdaq jumped by 3.07%. The S&P 500 gained 1.65%. The Dow Jones hit a new record close, at 51,671 points. The geopolitical risk premium disappeared all at once.

Technology stocks were the first to be priced in. Nvidia advanced by 3.54%. Alphabet progressed by 2.59%. Apple gained 1.82%. Microsoft followed with 2.31%. Investors are returning to the large caps they had abandoned during the conflict.

In Europe, however, the movement is more mixed. The CAC 40 ended the week slightly higher, at 8,384 points, but continued to lag behind its peers.

It is worth noting that on the CAC 40, Renault and Thales signed a partnership agreement to develop the TOUTATIS remotely operated munition on a large scale, following on from their TROOP 4x4 tactical vehicle presented the day before.

SpaceX, second week of trading

SpaceX continued its run after a smashing IPO the previous Friday. The stock jumped 19.6% on Monday, to $192.50. On Tuesday, the stock surpassed Amazon and then, momentarily, Microsoft. It briefly became the fourth most valuable company in the world.

In the wake of this, SpaceX announced its intention to acquire Anysphere, the publisher of the AI software Cursor, for $60 billion. The stated goal: to strengthen its presence in the enterprise artificial intelligence market. The message sent to the market is clear: the company does not want to limit itself to space.

The party was short-lived. Three sessions later, the stock fell by more than 16%. On Monday, June 22, it fell another 16% intraday, its worst session since its IPO, dragged down by a broader sell-off in tech. Nevertheless, SpaceX remains 31% above its IPO price, proof that the underlying momentum has not disappeared.

Commodities

Oil: the peace agreement drives prices down

The announcement of the US-Iran agreement had a bombshell effect on the oil market, which had been anticipating a normalization of supply for weeks.

On Monday, June 15, Brent fell by more than 4%, to $83.45. WTI gave up more than 5%, to $80.62. The decline continued throughout the week, as the market gradually priced in the prospect of a return of Iranian barrels.

The official signing of the memorandum on Thursday, June 18, further accentuated the decline. Brent fell below $78. WTI fell towards $74, its lowest level since early March. Over the last six sessions, oil fell five times.

The reason? The Strait of Hormuz is to reopen. This maritime route carries about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Its partial closure during the conflict had driven prices well above their pre-war levels. Its reopening heralds a massive return of supply to the market.

The International Energy Agency drove the point home. It forecasts global supply growth of around 8 million barrels per day between 2026 and 2027, compared with demand growth limited to 2 million. This could lead to a surplus of more than 5 million barrels per day by 2027. The tone of analysts is becoming resolutely bearish, with some mentioning a return of Brent to $75 in the coming weeks.

Gold

Gold experienced a week contrary to its usual standards. Normally a safe haven in times of crisis, it finds itself penalized by two forces acting paradoxically in the same direction: geopolitical de-escalation on the one hand, which reduces the demand for protection, and the Fed’s hawkish tone on the other, which strengthens the dollar and yields.

The metal fell back towards $4,130 - $4,140 an ounce after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Markets are now pricing in a real risk of a rate hike by the end of the year, which mechanically weighs on a non-yielding asset like gold.

The $4,000 level becomes the line to watch for the coming weeks. A clean break of this support would confirm sustained selling pressure. A return above $4,265 would signal, conversely, a rapid exhaustion of the correction.