First Half Review and Market Rebound

Equity: The first half review

The CAC 40 closed the first half of 2026 at 8,403.99 points, up +3.1% since January 1st. The balance is decent but fragile. After a very difficult first quarter (war in Iran, geopolitical tensions, and market volatility), the months of May and June offered a solid rebound, thus recovering a large part of the losses.

On Monday, June 29, the tone was however cautious. The CAC fell by 0.21%, to 8,367 points. Appetite for equities remains hampered by uncertainties surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the usual end-of-period caution.

On Tuesday, July 1st, a slight pullback set in. The CAC lost 0.79%, to 8,337 points. The stock market was sensitive to Warsh’s remarks in Sintra, who insisted that prices remain “too high” and left the door open to a possible rate hike.

The week then recovered. On Thursday, July 3, the Paris Bourse closed higher and approached its peaks. The CAC 40 regained 8,400 points, carried by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence and the gradual easing of tensions between the United States and Iran.

Wall Street closes its best quarter since 2020

The Nasdaq signed its best quarter since 2020, with a gain of more than 21% over the period. The S&P 500 progressed by 14.87% over the quarter, while the Dow Jones gained 12.90%. Investors bought massively into stocks linked to the artificial intelligence value chain; not only the big tech names, but also equipment manufacturers, energy suppliers for data centers, and semiconductor players.

Commodities

Oil

Oil is settling into an equilibrium zone. At the end of the week, Brent stabilized around $71.80 a barrel, and WTI fell slightly to $68.57. These levels are comparable to those observed before the outbreak of the conflict in Iran in February 2026.

The market is reassured by two major factors. First, discussions between the United States and Iran are progressing. Second, signals regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are positive: supply has reportedly exceeded 10 million barrels per day, compared with around 20 million in normal times before the war.

On Sunday, July 5, OPEC+ decided to increase its production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for the month of August — a similar increase to those decided in recent months. This signal of additional supply reinforces expectations of a lasting surplus. However, oil prices rose slightly on Monday, July 6 in Asia, as flows in the Strait of Hormuz remained irregular and global inventories still needed to be rebuilt.

A risk of a rebound remains underestimated according to several analysts. Brent has returned to its pre-war levels, but logistical normalization is not complete. An incident would be enough to cause prices to bounce back sharply.

Gold

Gold is experiencing a week of unexpected rebound, after several weeks of pressure. Two catalysts are working in its favor.

The first is Warsh’s intervention in Sintra. The Fed Chairman spoke on Tuesday, July 1st at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. His tone was surprisingly nuanced: he acknowledged that inflationary risks have receded in recent weeks, while reaffirming that prices remain “too high”. This dovish shift was enough to give markets some breathing room. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 65% to around 50% in the aftermath.

The second catalyst is the US employment report (NFP) on July 2. The US economy created only 57,000 jobs in June, the lowest figure in four months, well below the 110,000 expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This miss confirms a slowdown in the labor market and removes the argument from those advocating for rapid monetary tightening.

Gold bounced on these two pieces of news. The metal climbed back above $4,000 an ounce. The dollar recorded its biggest weekly drop since April, which mechanically supported the dollar-denominated metal. Central banks continued to buy: they added 41 net metric tons to their reserves in May, according to the World Gold Council.

At the end of the week, however, the signing of an interim peace treaty between Washington and Tehran cooled enthusiasm. The geopolitical risk premium that had supported gold in recent months partially evaporated. JPMorgan published a note anticipating a sideways movement in the coming weeks, while maintaining a bullish long-term perspective. Goldman Sachs, for its part, maintains its target of $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, driven by purchases from emerging market central banks.