Daily Report Horacle - July 2nd, 2026

Calendar

Macro Sentiment

Key Information:

USD:

Yesterday afternoon, the manufacturing PMI indices fell slightly short of market expectations. For the moment, unlike the labor market; the actual data is not extremely far from the forecasts so the shocks and variations in expectations are not significant. Nevertheless, the dollar cross pairs witnessed high volatility throughout the day yesterday. Even if the strong price movements relative to this publication were quickly filled by late evening.

We know today is the last day of the week for the US zone and therefore for the majority of traded and liquid assets… Joking aside, the data that will be published today will be just as decisive as the previous ones. The NFPs are expected to drop this month which could at the same time slow down the hawkish pricing that the market has been putting in place since the strong resilience of the US labor market. The unemployment rate is also expected to be similar to last month.

As ING bank analysts point out, the dollar’s momentum seems to be calming down little by little even though the hawkish bias of the market remains predominant. The bullish momentum of the USD/JPY pair has raised questions about the sovereignty of the yen and interventions by Japanese authorities. Our macro scoring and surprise models suggest another bullish week for the pair, with strong conviction.

EUR:

In the Eurozone, the PMI data did not lead to volatility, with France being the only country to have outperformed its expectations. As we know, the ECB does not plan to stop its rate hike cycle anytime soon, the market is already pricing in a rate hike before or for September, as we highlighted in last week’s article.